"My priority date is March 2019. How much longer do I have to wait?" That's the question we get asked more than any other.
Here's the honest answer first: no one can give you a date, not even the State Department itself. But we can give you a range, along with a fact that matters more than any range: in some categories, your wait is still getting longer every year.
Where is my category now, and roughly how many more years?
The table below shows cutoff dates as of September 2026, plus a rough estimate based on the pace of the past three years. Categories starting with EB are employment-based; those starting with F are family-based.
| Category | Current cutoff date | Backlog (years) | Average yearly advance, past 3 years | Rough time remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 2023-07-01 | 3.1 years | 172 days | about 6.7 years |
| EB-2 China | 2021-09-01 | 5.0 years | 262 days | about 6.9 years |
| EB-3 China | 2022-01-01 | 4.6 years | 284 days | about 6.0 years |
| EB-3 India | 2014-01-01 | 12.6 years | 609 days | about 7.6 years |
| F1 | 2020-01-22 | 6.6 years | 616 days | about 3.9 years |
| F2B | 2019-08-22 | 7.0 years | 477 days | about 5.4 years |
| F3 | 2014-10-22 | 11.8 years | 704 days | about 6.1 years |
| F4 | 2011-10-22 | 14.8 years | 548 days | about 9.9 years |
"Backlog" is how far today is from the cutoff date. "Rough time remaining" is the backlog divided by the average yearly advance. That number is only a starting point, not the answer, for reasons we'll get to right away.
The bulletin keeps moving forward, so why am I not catching up?
The visa bulletin moving forward doesn't mean you're catching up with it. That's because you're moving too: every year that passes, your priority date gets a year "older," while the cutoff date may have advanced only six months.
Subtract one from the other and you get your real progress:
| Category | Advance in a year | Time passed in a year | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 172 days | 365 days | −193 days |
| EB-2 China | 262 days | 365 days | −103 days |
| EB-3 China | 284 days | 365 days | −81 days |
| EB-3 India | 609 days | 365 days | +244 days |
| F1 | 616 days | 365 days | +251 days |
| F3 | 704 days | 365 days | +339 days |
| F4 | 548 days | 365 days | +183 days |
All three employment-based categories for people born in China have been negative over the past three years. In other words, if your math says "6.9 more years" today, running the same math a year from now will likely give you not 5.9 years but 7.2.
Family-based categories and EB-3 India are positive: those lines really are getting shorter.
That's why simply dividing the backlog by the pace underestimates the wait. If the line is getting longer, the denominator in that division will be smaller next year.
Why can't anyone tell me the exact date I'll become current?
To understand this, you need to know how the cutoff dates are set. The State Department explains it in a public document, "The Operation of the Immigrant Numerical Control System":
"If the monthly target is 3,000 and we have demand for 8,000 applicants, then we would need to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant."
So the visa bulletin isn't a progress bar. It's a queue calling out numbers. To predict when your turn comes, you need to know two things:
1. How many people are still ahead of you. USCIS publishes its inventory of pending I-485s (the application to adjust status, which you file to get a green card from inside the US), but it states that the data is incomplete: it doesn't include the consular queue on the State Department side, people with an approved I-140 (the employment-based immigrant petition your employer files for you) who haven't filed an I-485 yet, or PERM cases (labor certification, the first step of employment-based immigration) still pending at DOL. In other words, a sizable share of the people ahead of you can't be counted by anyone.
2. How many numbers can be issued each year. This number changes every year. For employment-based immigration, the worldwide limit was 150,037 in FY2025 (fiscal year 2025; the US fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year) and 186,317 in FY2026. That's over 30,000 more in a single year, because family-based numbers left unused the previous year roll over. And this figure can only be finalized after USCIS hands its data to the State Department; in 2026 that didn't happen until July 24.
Why does a big jump forward so often lead to a stall, or even retrogression?
The State Department attaches a key caveat to the demand data it publishes: the totals "should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand"; they "only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of new dates."
Put simply: when the cutoff date advances, people who weren't eligible to file suddenly become eligible, and demand appears out of nowhere. That's why big jumps are often followed by a stall or even retrogression. The advance itself creates demand.
Any projection based on "how many people are in line right now" will systematically underestimate this.
So how should I estimate my own wait?
Here are three things you can do yourself without fooling yourself:
1. Look at the yearly total, not single months. By our count, in 57% of "category × month" combinations over the past three years, the date didn't move at all. Watching month by month is almost guaranteed to disappoint you. Divide a year's total advance in days by 365, and that tells you how far you really moved that year.
2. Look at the gap between the two charts. The gap between Chart A (Final Action Dates) and Chart B (Dates for Filing) reflects the State Department's own expectations for the next 8 to 12 months. Each month, USCIS announces which chart to use for filing the I-485. The closer the two charts are, the less the State Department expects that category to move. This is an official forecast published free every month, and it's worth more attention than any third-party model.
3. Treat the estimate as a range, not a date. The table above shows the median scenario. Policy changes, end-of-fiscal-year pushes to use up numbers, or one country using up its numbers early can all push the actual outcome off by several years. Any forecast that gives you a specific date is pretending to know what it doesn't.
How do I calculate it for my own priority date?
The tables above show averages for each category. To run the numbers for your own priority date, category and country of birth, use these:
- Green card wait time estimator: gives optimistic, median and conservative ranges based on historical pace
- I-485 filing eligibility check: first confirm whether you can file this month
- The CSPA (Child Status Protection Act) determines whether your child will age out and lose eligibility to immigrate with you because the wait runs too long. If you have a child close to 21, this is more urgent than the wait itself: CSPA age calculator
Data sources
- Career Engine's own visa bulletin database: November 2015 to September 2026, 131 bulletins in all; the pace figures in this article use the 36 bulletins from September 2023 onward, Chart A
- US State Department, "The Operation of the Immigrant Numerical Control System" (July 2025 edition)
- US State Department, Visa Bulletin for September 2026, with the official FY2026 annual limits
- USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data: the pending I-485 inventory and its stated data limitations
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