If you've ever looked at the China and India columns of the visa bulletin side by side, you've probably run into a question you can't get around: same employment-based immigration, same category, so why are the two so far apart?
In the September 2026 bulletin, the three EB-2 (second preference, advanced-degree professionals) columns look like this:
| Chart A (Final Action Dates) | Chart B (Dates for Filing) | |
|---|---|---|
| All other countries | Current | Current |
| Mainland China | September 1, 2021 | January 1, 2022 |
| India | Unavailable | January 15, 2015 |
EB-3 (third preference, skilled workers) makes it even clearer: worldwide is September 1, 2024, China is January 1, 2022, and India is January 1, 2014. Same category, and eight years separate India from China.
This isn't luck, and it isn't that one country's cases are processed more slowly. It's an arithmetic problem you can work out, and two numbers are all you need.
The first number: H-1B has no per-country cap
Every year, USCIS sends Congress a report titled "Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers." The latest edition (FY 2024, fiscal year 2024) says:
Of the H-1B petitions approved in FY 2024, 71 percent were for beneficiaries whose country of birth was India. The second most common country of birth was China, accounting for approximately 12 percent of all beneficiaries.
In fiscal year 2024, a total of 399,395 H-1B petitions were approved (141,205 for initial employment and 258,190 for continuing employment). India accounted for 71% and China for 12%; the other eight countries in the top ten added up to just 7%.
The report has another, less often cited figure: India and China together account for 89% of continuing employment approvals and 71% of initial employment approvals. In other words, the further along the process you go, the higher the two countries' share. People come and they stay, and the line keeps piling up on itself.
H-1B itself has no per-country quota. Whoever applies more gets more; nothing in the law caps any one country's share.
The second number: green cards have a per-country cap of 7%
At the green card stage, the rules change completely. INA section 202(a)(2) says no single country can receive more than 7% of the total immigrant visas issued in a year.
Note that the base for this 7% is family-based and employment-based immigration combined, not employment-based alone. USCIS gives a fiscal year 2023 example in its own explanation: 197,091 (employment-based) + 226,000 (family-based) = 423,091, and 7% of that is 29,616.
Put these two numbers together and you have your answer:
A country that makes up 71% of the way in gets only 7% of the way out.
The excess doesn't disappear. It just waits in line, and that's the line you're in. Wait long enough and you end up with the "January 2014" you see in the chart today.
China runs on the same mechanism, just at a different scale: 12% of the way in, and likewise only 7% of the way out. It's not oversubscribed by as much, so its line isn't as long. China's EB-3 sits at 2022 while India's sits at 2014, and the difference isn't in how the policy treats them. It's the distance between 71 and 12.
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So why does the worldwide column say "Current"?
Because all the other countries together don't use up their share.
The law has a pressure-release valve (section 202(a)(5)): when the supply of visas in a category exceeds worldwide demand, the leftover numbers can be issued without regard to the 7% limit. Nearly all of the forward movement China and India get comes through this channel. The State Department itself has said it is this provision that has allowed applicants born in mainland China and India to use large numbers of employment-based visas that would otherwise have gone unused.
So when you check the visa bulletin each month, here's a habit more useful than looking only at your own column: look at the worldwide column first.
- Worldwide is "Current" → the valve is open → China and India have a chance to move forward
- Worldwide shows a specific date → the valve closes → China and India immediately lose that source of numbers
In the September 2026 bulletin, EB-3 worldwide is no longer "Current"; it's September 1, 2024. A change like this usually shows up a month earlier than its effect on the China column.
What this means for you
Don't use India's dates as a benchmark for your own forecast. The length of each line is set by that country's share of the way in. India retrogressing doesn't mean China will, and India advancing doesn't mean China will follow.
And don't take comfort in "India has it worse." China's 12% against a 7% cap is nearly double. That structural gap is always there; it just looks less dramatic next to India's sheer volume.
The column to really watch is the worldwide one. It's the only signal that tells you in advance whether the valve is open or closed, and it's printed publicly in the visa bulletin every month.
Data sources
- Country-of-birth breakdown and approval counts: USCIS, "Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, FY 2024" (annual report to Congress)
- Per-country cap: Immigration and Nationality Act section 202(a)(2); the pressure-release provision is section 202(a)(5)
- Visa bulletin data: US State Department, September 2026 Visa Bulletin
This article only compares data against the statute and is not legal advice. For individual cases, please consult a qualified immigration lawyer.